Category Archives: Economic Crisis

Superpower trade war Looms. How it will affect New Zealand – Liam Dann.

“If America, China relations become very difficult, our position becomes tougher because then we will be coerced to choose.”

It’s a nightmare scenario for a small trading nation with historic cultural and political links to the US, but an increasing economic reliance on China.

A full blown trade war between China and the US could have devastating political consequences for us all.

In this case, it’s not New Zealand’s Prime Minister doing the worrying, it’s Singaporean leader Lee Hsien Loong.

His simple, blunt assessment of the risk posed by Donald Trump’s anti-China trade rhetoric caused a minor uproar in the diplomatically cautious Asian nation.

Here in New Zealand, where we face the same risks, we’re yet to officially confront the issue. And as issues go, it’s a big one: in the year to June 2016, New Zealand’s total trade (imports and exports) with China was $22.86 billion, compared to $16.25b with the US.

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler has spoken most openly about his fears for the economic risk to New Zealand if the Trump Administration does some of the things it has threatened to do.

In a speech last month, Wheeler suggested that Trump’s Administration represents the greatest source of uncertainty for our economy – both in terms of his impact on the domestic economy and his potential to increase global trade protectionism.

“Rationally speaking, there shouldn’t be a reason we should go into a trade war. But we have to be prepared,” says Auckland University Business School trade economist Dr Asha Sandaram.

China and the US are like Siamese twins, she says. In other words, their economies are now so intertwined that doing damage to one must hurt the other.

“I think they both know that if they start this, they will both go down. So I don’t think it should be a big risk. But the thing with Donald Trump, is you just don’t know. He has been running the most incoherent Administration we have seen,” Sandaram says.

“What he says today is not correlated with what he says tomorrow … and what he’ll actually do. So we have to consider the possibility of an escalating trade war.”

For anyone who relies on global trade, Trump has said some frightening things.

On the campaign trail, he talked about hitting Chinese imports with 45 per cent tariffs and accused China of currency manipulation.

Since becoming President, he has pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement.

In a leaked recording, he has talked about imposing 10 per cent tariffs on all imports and is said to be considering border taxes.

His key trade adviser has been China hawk Peter Navarro, author of Death by China: Confronting the Dragon.

And he has nominated Robert Lighthizer – who has accused China of unfair trade practices – as his US Trade Representative.

Bloomberg has surfaced an article Lighthizer wrote in 2011 praising Ronald Reagan’s aggressive trade stance when Japan’s economic rise threatened the US.

There are concerns that Trump may look to follow those Reagan-era tactics, invoking section 301 of the US Trade Act, which allows a President to bestow “unfavourable trading status” on certain nations.

It’s a measure the US hasn’t used since it adopted World Trade Organisation rules in 1995.

And, as the many critics have warned, the world has changed. China is not like Japan, politically and militarily dependent on the US.

Last month, Wheeler told the Herald that his trade concerns deepened after visiting Washington DC at the start of the year.

“I was in Washington recently talking to a number of senior people – very well connected to the Trump Administration. They were saying that the concerns around China are deeply felt. In other words, the Trump Administration has very strong views about currency manipulation and trade practices out of China. I found that deeply worrying.”

Wheeler warns that the Trump risk comes on top of a protectionist trend which is already dampening global trade and threatening growth.

Long-time New Zealand trade advocate Stephen Jacobi agrees.

“Undoubtedly it is a concern,” he says of Trump’s protectionist rhetoric. “It was already a concern. Protection was already on the rise and we had seen a slowing in trade growth as well.”

The advent of the Trump Administration has thrown the spotlight on this he says.

Jacobi, who was head of the NZ US Council as executive director from 2005 to 2014, is now executive director of the NZ China Council, so has a good perspective on New Zealand’s relationship with both economies.

“It is early days for the [Trump] Administration,” he says. “In fact the Administration isn’t even in place yet. We just have to withhold our judgment for a bit, however much it might pain us to do so, to see what actually happens.”

From discussions he has had in Wellington, Jacobi believes New Zealand officials are very much taking that wait and see approach.

That said, the Government has been working on a new trade policy strategy and is expected to release it this month.

It will have to acknowledge the growing risks and look at alternatives to the TPP, Jacobi says.

“But I doubt whether they will have given up on the US just yet.

“So concern, yes. Panic no,” he says.

Professor Natasha Hamilton-Hart, with the Department of Management and International Business at Auckland University, says one of the direct risks to New Zealand is the prospect that Trump scores an own goal with his economic policies.

“I know the markets seem to be pricing in good times on the horizon but I’m pretty sceptical that that is going to last.

She doesn’t see a sustainable growth trajectory coming out of either the tax or infrastructure programme.

Things like border taxes and tariffs would be distortionary and depress consumer spending, she says.

“We will see an increase in military spending and with the tax cut will start to see an increase in the deficit, which is going to have implications for US interest rates.

“There are potentially quite contractionary processes in the medium term. They just don’t seem to have a coherent, workable plan.”

Then there are the diplomatic risks around a President who tweets his midnight thoughts to the world.

Trump’s impact on Asia-Pacific trading relationships is a serious concern.

“This might be overly optimistic,” Hamilton-Hart says. “I’m doubtful that it will come to a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese exports because that would be so disrupting and damaging to US firms and US consumers. It’s going to double the price of everything in Walmart.”

“What I think is more likely is that we will see a stronger line of creeping protectionism … so cancelling the TPP, looking at alternatives to dispute settlements outside the WTO, that kind of thing.

“I imagine we’ll see a lot more of that. And I imagine that is what China is gearing up for. So yeah, a less rule based trading system.”

The irony of Trump’s trade deficit obsession is that running big deficits is what actually gives you power on the global economic stage, Hamilton-Hart says.

In other words, a big net importer is the customer and the customer is always right.

“So if you stop running those trade deficits, then you no longer have the ability to throw your weight around. If Donald Trump were to significantly withdraw the US from world trade by putting up barriers and shrinking the US economy … that can only go with a reduction in US influence.”

China, for its part, doesn’t appear keen on a trade war and isn’t rushing to fill the trade leadership void left by the US .

For example, it appears to be carefully maintaining the strength of the Renminbi to avoid inflaming US currency hawks.

“They certainly do not want a trade war,” Jacobi says. “They’ve got enormous economic interests with the United States. And I think you can rely on the Chinese to manage all of that in a very sensible way.”

What worries Jacobi more is the risk of America over-playing its hand on security and sovereignty issues – like Taiwan.

“That’s much more worrying because you can’t always guarantee how a nationalistic China might react,” he says. “When you touch on issues of national sovereignty with the Chinese, you don’t get the same sort of reaction that you do on other things.”

Jacobi does have faith that the US system, with its constitutional checks and balances on executive power, will work – in time.

“But he [Trump] has a lot of power to do things in the short term. While congress catches up.”

Likewise, there will be powerful lobbying forces in the US business community who will push back at things he might want to do.

“But they also take time,” Jacobi says.

“I’m confident that over time the right decisions should be made. But what damage will be done in the meantime is a bit of an unknown.

“And the world has lost a whole lot of leadership around open markets and free trade.”

So where does that leave the New Zealand and its Asia-Pacific trading partners?

The remaining TPP signatories head to Chile later this month to discuss what, if anything, is salvageable without America.

The Americans have said they will send a representative to that meeting, although it’s not clear who that will be or what level of interest they will take, say Jacobi.

“And China will also be around. Because there is a Pacific Alliance meeting [a Latin American trading bloc] and the Chinese have been invited to that.”

There is a need for quiet diplomacy behind the scenes and New Zealand could play a key role in that, says Jacobi.

But we need to be careful not to upset the other members of the TPP.

Particularly the Japanese who, says Jacobi,  “are in a very invidious position”.

“They had this ballistic missile sent from North Korea the other day. They have got real security concerns, for which they have to rely on the US. They are not going to be drawn to take issue with the United States unnecessarily.”

China is already a member of an alternative multilateral trade group – the  Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which also includes New Zealand.

If completed, that free trade agreement (FTA) would include the 10 member states of ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and the six states with which ASEAN has existing free trade agreements (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand).

There have been suggestions that China may look to push this deal as a TPP alternative.

But China hasn’t yet shown any signs of taking the lead, says Jacobi.

On the one hand, we’ve heard rhetoric from Chinese President Xi Jinping about China’s global leadership, but the reality is that they haven’t taken a major role in multilateral negotiations yet, Jacobi says.

“Maybe it’s time. They do have an enormous ability now to fill a vacuum.”

It is a different game now, says Hamilton-Hart, who believes the TPP is effectively dead.

“So do we make a much better effort to get on board with RCEP?”  she says. “Or are we going to hang in there and hope that we could do a bilateral with the US … which I think would be a bad thing to do as we’d be massively disadvantaged in the negotiations.”

Jacobi agrees that the bilateral path is problematic.

“We can’t afford not to push on any open door,” he says. “But the reality is that is bloody hard going. Look at the experience we had with Korea, very complicated.”

Trump has said he’ll do bilateral deals with TPP partners. But we would want dairy concessions and the US would want a lot of movement on medicines, says Jacobi.

And neither would play well politically for either nation.

“We’ve got to talk, but will we be high up on the list? And will it be better than TPP? Most unlikely”

“I don’t want to be too pessimistic,” says Auckland University’s Sandaram. “There may be some opportunities as a small country where you could fly under the radar. It’s harder for a big country to be non-aligned.”

This could be a unique opportunity, she says. “We could try and stay neutral and expand into both markets.”

Sandaram, who has been based in New Zealand for only a year, feels New Zealand is sometimes overly cautious about Chinese sensitivities.

“It’s not a traditional link like the UK or Australia, so maybe it is because it is new that we are so cautious.”

Jacobi believes the Chinese have a good understanding of our deep political and economic ties with the Western nations, and particularly the US.

“In fact, one of the positive aspects they see in our relationship is that we are an interesting interlocutor because of our attachment to the West,” he says. “But they also know our trade and economic ties are towards China. So whether that will amount to cutting slack … I’m not sure.”

Both Sandaram and Jacobi believe we have more options than we did a generation ago.

“We need to diversify,” says Sandaram. “China is decelerating. But we have Asian powers that are fast growing economies. India, Malaysia, Indonesia – with the emerging middle class there is going to be demand for goods that New Zealand exports.

“That’s a great opportunity I think we’re uniquely placed.”

New Zealand, both at a government and a business level, has to be proactive about trade, now more so than ever, says Jacobi.

“This is not something that New Zealand can just sit back and observe. We don’t have that luxury. This is about our economic livelihood and we have to have a say in it.”

NZ Herald

How economic boom times in the West came to an end – Marc Levinson. 

Unprecedented growth marked the era from 1948 to 1973. Economists might study it forever, but it can never be repeated. Why? 

The second half of the 20th century divides neatly in two. The divide did not come with the rise of Ronald Reagan or the fall of the Berlin Wall. It is not discernible in a particular event, but rather in a shift in the world economy, and the change continues to shape politics and society in much of the world today.

The shift came at the end of 1973. The quarter-century before then, starting around 1948, saw the most remarkable period of economic growth in human history. In the Golden Age between the end of the Second World War and 1973, people in what was then known as the ‘industrialised world’ – Western Europe, North America, and Japan – saw their living standards improve year after year. They looked forward to even greater prosperity for their children. Culturally, the first half of the Golden Age was a time of conformity, dominated by hard work to recover from the disaster of the war. The second half of the age was culturally very different, marked by protest and artistic and political experimentation. Behind that fermentation lay the confidence of people raised in a white-hot economy: if their adventures turned out badly, they knew, they could still find a job.

The year 1973 changed everything. High unemployment and a deep recession made experimentation and protest much riskier, effectively putting an end to much of it. A far more conservative age came with the economic changes, shaped by fears of failing and concerns that one’s children might have it worse, not better. Across the industrialised world, politics moved to the Right – a turn that did not avert wage stagnation, the loss of social benefits such as employer-sponsored pensions and health insurance, and the secure, stable employment that had proved instrumental to the rise of a new middle class and which workers had come to take for granted. At the time, an oil crisis took the blame for what seemed to be a sharp but temporary downturn. Only gradually did it become clear that the underlying cause was not costly oil but rather lagging productivity growth – a problem that would defeat a wide variety of government policies put forth to correct it.

The great boom began in the aftermath of the Second World War. The peace treaties of 1945 did not bring prosperity; on the contrary, the post-war world was an economic basket case. Tens of millions of people had been killed, and in some countries a large proportion of productive capacity had been laid to waste. Across Europe and Asia, tens of millions of refugees wandered the roads. Many countries lacked the foreign currency to import food and fuel to keep people alive, much less to buy equipment and raw material for reconstruction. Railroads barely ran; farm tractors stood still for want of fuel.

Everywhere, producing enough coal to provide heat through the winter was a challenge. As shoppers mobbed stores seeking basic foodstuffs, much less luxuries such as coffee and cotton underwear, prices soared. Inflation set off waves of strikes in the United States and Canada as workers demanded higher pay to keep up with rising prices. The world’s economic outlook seemed dim. It did not look like the beginning of a golden age.

As late as 1948, incomes per person in much of Europe and Asia were lower than they had been 10 or even 20 years earlier. But 1948 brought a change for the better. In January, the US military government in Japan announced it would seek to rebuild the economy rather than exacting reparations from a country on the verge of starvation. In April, the US Congress approved the economic aid programme that would be known as the Marshall Plan, providing Western Europe with desperately needed dollars to import machinery, transport equipment, fertiliser and food. In June, the three occupying powers – France, the United Kingdom and the US – rolled out the deutsche mark, a new currency for the western zones of Germany. A new central bank committed to keeping inflation low and the exchange rate steady would oversee the deutsche mark.

Postwar chaos gave way to stability, and the war-torn economies began to grow. In many countries, they grew so fast for so long that people began to speak of the ‘economic miracle’ (West Germany), the ‘era of high economic growth’ (Japan) and the 30 glorious years (France). In the English-speaking world, this extraordinary period became known as the Golden Age.

What was it that made the Golden Age exceptional? Part of the answer is that economies were making up for lost time: after years of depression and wartime austerity, enormous needs for housing, consumer goods, equipment for farms, factories, railroads and electric generating plants stood ready to drive growth. But much more lay behind the Golden Age of economic growth than pent-up demand. Two factors deserve special attention.

First, the expanding welfare state. The Second World War shook up the social structures in all the wealthy countries, fundamentally altering domestic politics, in particular exerting an equalising force. As societies embarked on reconstruction, no one could deny that citizens who had been asked to sacrifice in war were entitled to share in the benefits of peace. In many cases, labour unions became the representatives of working people’s claims to peacetime dividends. Indeed, union membership reached historic highs, and union leaders sat alongside business and government leaders to hammer out social policy. Between 1944 and 1947, one country after another created old-age pension schemes, national health insurance, family allowances, unemployment insurance and more social benefits. These programmes gave average families a sense of security they had never known. Children from poor families could visit the doctor without great expense. The loss of a job or the death of a wage-earner no longer meant destitution.

Second, in addition to the growing welfare state, strong productivity growth contributed to rising living standards. Rising productivity – increasing the efficiency with which an economy uses labour, capital and other resources – is the main force that makes an economy grow. Because new technologies and better ways of doing business take time to filter through the economy, productivity improvements are usually slow. But in the postwar years, productivity grew very quickly. A unique combination of circumstances propelled it. In just a few years, millions of people moved from low-productivity farm work – more than 3 million mules still plowed furrows on US farms in 1945 – to construction and factory jobs that used the latest machinery.

In 1940, the average working-age adult in western Europe had less than five years of formal education. As governments invested heavily in high schools and universities after the war, they produced a more educated and literate workforce with the skills to produce far more wealth. Advances in national infrastructure gave direct boosts to national productivity. High-speed motorways enabled truck drivers to carry bigger loads over longer distances at higher speeds, greatly expanding markets for farms and factories. Six rounds of trade negotiations between 1947 and 1967, ultimately involving nearly 50 countries that signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), brought a massive increase in cross-border trade, forcing manufacturers to modernise or give up. Firms moved to take advantage of technological innovations to operate more productively, such as jet aircraft and numerically controlled machinery.

Between 1951 and 1973, propelled by strong productivity gains, the world economy grew at an annual rate of nearly 5 per cent. The impact on living standards was dramatic. Jobs were just for the asking; in 1966, West Germany’s unemployment rate touched an unprecedented 0.5 per cent. Electricity, indoor plumbing and television sets became common. Stoves burning coal or peat were replaced by central heating systems. Homes grew larger, and tens of millions of families acquired refrigerators and automobiles. The higher living standards did much more than simply bring new material goods. Retirement by 65, or even earlier, became the norm. Life expectancy jumped. Importantly, in Western Europe, North America and Japan, people across society shared in those gains. Prosperity was not limited to the urban elite. Most people began to live better, and they knew it. In the span of a quarter-century, living standards doubled and then, in many countries, doubled again.

The good times rolled on so long that people took them for granted. Between 1948 and 1973, Australia, Japan, Sweden and Italy had not a single year of recession. West Germany and Canada did almost as well. Governments and the economists who advised them happily claimed the credit. Careful economic management, they said, had put an end to cyclical ups and downs. Governments possessed more information about citizens and business than ever before, and computers could crunch the data to help policymakers determine the best course of action. In a lecture at Harvard University in 1966, Walter Heller, formerly chief economic adviser to presidents John F Kennedy and Lyndon B Johnson, trumpeted the success of what he called the ‘new economics’. ‘Conceptual advances and quantitative research in economics,’ he declared, ‘are replacing emotion with reason.’

Wages and investment were private decisions, but Schiller hoped government guidelines would contribute to ‘collective rationality’

The most influential proponent of such ideas was Karl Schiller, who became economy minister of West Germany, Europe’s largest economy, in 1966. A former professor at the University of Hamburg, where his students included the future West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, Schiller was a centrist Social Democrat. He stood apart from those on the Left who favoured state ownership of industry, but also from extreme free-market conservatives. His advice called for ‘a synthesis of planning and competition’. Schiller defined his philosophy thus: ‘As much competition as possible, as much planning as necessary.’

Most fundamentally, Schiller believed that government should commit itself to maintaining high employment, steady growth and stable prices. And it should do this all while keeping its international account in balance, within the framework of a free-market economy. These four commitments made the corners of what he called the ‘magic square’. In December 1966, when Schiller became economy minister in a new coalition government, the magic square became official policy. Following Schiller’s version of Keynesian economics, his ministry’s experts advised federal and state governments how to adjust their budgets to achieve ‘equilibrium of the entire economy’. The ministry’s advice was based on an elaborate planning exercise that churned out five-year projections. In the spring of 1967, the finance ministry was told to adjust taxes and spending plans to increase business investment while slowing the growth of consumer spending. These moves, Schiller’s economic models promised, would bring economic growth averaging 4 per cent through 1971, along with 0.8 per cent unemployment, 1 per cent annual inflation and a 1 per cent current account surplus.

But in an economy that was overwhelmingly privately run, government alone could not reach perfection. Four or five times a year, Schiller summoned corporate executives, union presidents and the heads of business organisations to a conference room in the ministry. There he described the economic outlook and announced how much wages and investment could rise without compromising his national economic targets. Of course, he would add, wages and investment were private decisions, but he hoped that the government’s guidelines would contribute to ‘collective rationality’. Such careful stage management cemented Schiller’s fame. In 1969, for the first time, the Social Democrats outpolled every other party. The election that year became known as the ‘Schiller election’.

Schiller insisted that his policies had brought West Germany to ‘a sunny plateau of prosperity’ where inflation and unemployment were permanently vanquished. Year after year, however, the economy failed to perform as he instructed. In July 1972, when Schiller was denied control over the exchange rate, he stormed out of the cabinet and left elected office forever.

Schiller left with the West German economy roaring. Within 18 months, his claim that the government could ensure stable prices, robust growth and jobs for all blew up.

The headline event of 1973 was the oil crisis. On 6 October, Egyptian and Syrian armies attacked Israeli positions, starting the conflict that became known as the Yom Kippur War. By agreeing to slash production and raise the price of oil, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and other Middle Eastern oil exporters quickly backed the two Arab countries. Shipments to countries that supported Israel, including the US and the Netherlands, were cut off altogether.

Oil-importing countries responded in dramatic fashion. Western European countries lowered speed limits and rationed diesel supplies. From Italy to Norway, driving was banned on four consecutive Sundays in order to save fuel. The Japanese government shut down factories and told citizens to turn out the pilot lights on their water heaters. US truck drivers blocked highways to protest high fuel prices, and motorists queued for hours to top off their gasoline tanks. In a televised address, the US President Richard Nixon warned Americans: ‘We are heading toward the most acute shortages of energy since the Second World War.’

Faced with higher petroleum prices, economic growth in 1974 collapsed. Around the world, inflation soared. When oil prices receded, the world economy failed to bounce back. Double-digit inflation dramatically undermined workers’ wage gains. From 1973 to 1979, average income per worker grew only half as fast as it had before 1973. Help-wanted signs vanished as unemployment rose. The economic experts, only recently so confident that their rational mathematical analysis had brought permanent prosperity, were flummoxed. Stable economic growth had given way to violent gyrations.

The underlying problem, it turned out, was not expensive petroleum but slow productivity growth. Through the 1960s and early ’70s, across the wealthy world, productivity had risen a strong 5 per cent a year. After 1973, the trend shifted clearly downward. Through the rest of the 20th century, productivity growth in the wealthy economies averaged less than 2 per cent a year. Diminished productivity growth translated directly into sluggish economic growth. The days when people could feel their living standards rising from one year to the next were over. As the good times failed to return, voters turned their fury on political leaders. In fact, there was little any Western politician could do to put their economies back on their previous tracks.

To give a short-term boost to an underperforming economy, central banks and governments have a variety of tools they can use. They can lower interest rates to make it cheaper to buy a car or build a factory. They can lower taxes to give consumers more money to spend. They can increase government spending to pump more cash into the economy. They can change regulations to make it easier for banks to lend money. But when it comes to an economy’s long-term growth potential, productivity is vital. It matters more than anything else – and productivity growth after the early 1970s was simply slower than before.

Turning innovative ideas into economically valuable products and services can involve years of trial and error

The reasons behind slowed productivity growth had nothing to do with any government’s economic policy. The historic move of rural peoples to the cities, around the world, could not be repeated. Once masses of peasant farmers and sharecroppers had shifted into more productive work in the cities, it was done. The great flow of previously unemployed women into the labour force was over. In the 1960s, building thousands of miles of superhighways brought massive economic benefits. But once those roads were open to traffic, adding lanes or exit ramps was far less consequential. In rich countries, literacy had risen to almost universal levels. After that historic jump, the effects of additional small increases in average education were comparatively slight. If higher productivity growth were to be regained, it would have to come from developing technological innovations and new approaches to business, and putting them to use in ways that allowed the business sector to operate more effectively.

When it comes to influencing innovation, governments have power. Grants for scientific research and education, and policies that make it easy for new firms to grow, can speed the development of new ideas. But what matters for productivity is not the number of innovations, but the rate at which innovations affect the economy – something almost totally beyond the ability of governments to control. Turning innovative ideas into economically valuable products and services can involve years of trial and error. Many of the basic technologies behind mobile telephones were developed in the 1960s and ’70s, but mobile phones came into widespread use only in the 1990s. Often, a new technology is phased in only over time as old buildings and equipment are phased out. Moreover, for reasons no one fully understands, productivity growth and innovation seem to move in long cycles. In the US, for example, between the 1920s and 1973, innovation brought strong productivity growth. Between 1973 and 1995, it brought much less. The years between 1995 and 2003 saw high productivity gains, and then again considerably less thereafter.

When the surge in productivity following the Second World War tailed off, people around the globe felt the pain. At the time, it appeared that a few countries – France and Italy for a few years in the late 1970s, Japan in the second half of the ’80s – had discovered formulas allowing them to defy the downward global productivity trend. But their economies revived only briefly before productivity growth waned. Jobs soon became scarce again, and improvements in living standards came more slowly. The poor productivity growth of the late 1990s was not due to taxes, regulations or other government policies in any particular country, but to global trends. No country escaped them.

Unlike the innovations of the 1950s and ’60s, which were welcomed widely, those of the late 20th century had costly side effects. While information technology, communications and freight transportation became cheaper and more reliable, giant industrial complexes became dinosaurs as work could be distributed widely to take advantage of labour supplies, transportation facilities or government subsidies. Workers whose jobs were relocated found that their years of experience and training were of little value in other industries, and communities that lost major employers fell into decay. Meanwhile, the welfare state on which they had come to rely began to deteriorate, its financial underpinnings stressed due to the slow growth of tax revenue in economies that were no longer buoyant. The widespread sharing in the mid-century boom was not repeated in the productivity gains at the end of the century, which accumulated at the top of the income scale.

For much of the world, the Golden Age brought extraordinary prosperity. But it also brought unrealistic expectations about what governments can do to assure full employment, steady economic growth and rising living standards. These expectations still shape political life today. Between 1979 and 1982, citizens in one country after another threw out the leaders who stood for the welfare state and voted in a wave of more Right-wing politicians – Margaret Thatcher, Reagan, Helmut Kohl, Yasuhiro Nakasone and many others – who promised to tame big government and let market forces, lower tax rates and deregulation bring the good times back. Today, nearly 40 years on, voters are again turning to the Right, hoping that populist leaders will know how to make slow-growing economies great again.

More than a generation ago, the free-market policies of Thatcher and Reagan proved no more successful at improving productivity and raising economic growth than the policies they supplanted. There is no reason to think that the populists of our day will do much better. The Golden Age was wonderful while it lasted, but it cannot be repeated. If there were a surefire method for coaxing extraordinary performance from mature economies, it likely would have been discovered a long time ago.

Aeon

NZ Inflation now at dangerously low level. 

The deflation risk will weigh heavily on the Reserve Bank, which is required to target an inflation band of between 1 and 3 per cent, which it has been outside for two years.

The idea that falling prices are a bad thing for an economy can seem counter-intuitive. But the problem as economists see it – and as witnessed in Japan over the past 20 years – is that when people expect inflation to be consistently low or deflation takes hold this can create a recessionary spiral. Expectation things will become cheaper suppresses consumer spending and business investment. The two feed off each other as lower consumption forces businesses to contract and focus on costs. That can start to cost jobs.

A cheaper TV or overseas holiday doesn’t look so good if you’ve been laid off. NZ Herald